2018 Season

Having watched this match online, I have to agree that this women's team is so much more fun to watch than some of the most recent year's teams. I am encouraged by how well they seem to be playing!

This makes me more excited for the upcoming matchups with Oregon and Oregon State (our first true road game). With the Oregon game at 5pm, I can certainly watch!

Enjoyed the Pilot win yesterday against UCIrvine! Would like to see more of Madison Carter. As others have written - wondering why they seem to be bringing her along slowly? Also looking forward to seeing what Collier can bring when she returns. Liking what I’ve seen so far from the defense. Hazlett was playing defense at the end of the game. Obviously talented at multiple positions.

What I did not enjoy is the noise from the student section! The ranting yesterday in particular was annoying, was a distraction, and ruins the Merlo experience!

I find the student antics to be entertaining.

Just a note: Of the 50 D1 women's teams with new coaches this year, the Pilots are #1 in out performing where the historic trend says they should be.

Auto-Pilot wrote:What I did not enjoy is the noise from the student section! The ranting yesterday in particular was annoying, was a distraction, and ruins the Merlo experience!

Part of the Merlo experience is defined by noise from the student section. It’s best when they use humor.

I agree that the student section humor adds to the Merlo experience. What happened at the last game was not humor. It was one person ranting for what seemed like minutes and distracted from the game IMO.

One guy ranting?

Are you sure that wasn’t me?

You were definitely ranting!

Oregon’s Twitter said that was their first victory over us “in the modern era.” I’m not sure what that means but the loss to the Ducks stings all the same. I saw that Oregon looks like a good team this season and they seemed to be stronger and taller than us from my amateur eye.

I did think our goal looked great, though! A nice header off of a corner kick straight by all the defenders. It was beautiful!

It looked from my seat like the Ducks wanted it more than we did. We were a step slow to every ball and they closed us down very quickly and didn't let us get into a possession game. Very disappointing performance against what I think is a pretty weak opponent. Growing pains, perhaps.

SoreKnees wrote: Very disappointing performance against what I think is a pretty weak opponent. Growing pains, perhaps.

Talking to the coaches after the game, they too were disappointed, but are looking forward to a testing match against Linus Rhode and his OSU team tomorrow afternoon in Corvallis. (I believe it's been something like 23 years since Linus captained his Pilot team to the Final Four).

The second half of that game might be on TV on the Pac-12 network.  Comcast says #1 Stanford (7-0) vs. #7 Santa Clara (7-1) airs at 4:05, but the SCU website indicates a 5:05 starting time.  When that game is over, we are supposed to see the Pilots (4-4) vs. Beavers (1-6) game, but that also begins at 5:05?? 

Regardless, it will be streamed live on Pac-12 Oregon.

I agree with SoreKnees.  I would have said a half-step slow rather than a full step.  However much, it was enough so that we got beat repeatedly on both sides of the ball.

That is the first match that Muth has missed since she arrived.  Miyama saw her first action of the season.  But we still have only 4 field players available for subs.

I agree with SouthCarolinaPilot that many of the UO players were big.  We got knocked off the ball many times; it didn't look like it took much to knock us aside.

Before the match, I walked down to the new fields along the river.  The turf field is completed.  The grass field was being setup to get lined.  A well has been drilled.  There currently is no electricity, so the lights, altho installed, are still non-functional.  There will be a tennis center, a rowing clubhouse, a new physical plant, and parking.

For my promised regular post-game comment on how the team did compared to the simulated pre-season result, which is based on the teams' trends over past year projected into this year: The simulation says the Pilots should lose to Oregon. So, in this case they matched the simulation. I'll also note that Oregon is performing better than the simulation says it should. I would have been thrilled with a tie, I'm sorry to get a loss, but the team overall is running way ahead of the direction it was headed in before the new coaching staff arrived.

The simulation also says the Pilots should have lost to Oregon State. Instead, they got a 3-0 win. As of right now they are five wins ahead of where the simulation says they would be based on past trends. And, looking at the box score, this was a game the ladies completely dominated. Way to go team and coaching staff!

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:….And, looking at the box score, this was a game the ladies completely dominated.  Way to go team and coaching staff!

After finally watching the video of this win, yes, the Pilots totally dominated, and looked very good doing it.

Always moving forward, always attacking, even if Ries (2) and Hazlett had not scored their rifle goals, the game would have been highly entertaining.

Last year's team, with essentially the same players, was 5-13 for the season.  So far, this year's squad is 5-4, even with a very short roster due to injuries.

Pilots 3 Beavers 0

I thought that the Beavers were a very un-impressive team.  I find it hard to believe that any rating system would have favored them.

I sat next to a disgruntled Beaver fan who says it’s time to replace the coach, UP alum Linus Rhode.  He claims that Rhode’s best years were with the teams he inherited from his predecessor, Steve Fennah, who went from Jesuit HS to OSU and is now back (and very successful) at Jesuit.  Sound familiar?

I watched the Beaver goalie for 4 years in high school.  I thought one of the 1st things her college coaches would address would be her start-stop-start approach on goal kicks, but evidently not so.

The Pilots were noticeably more aggressive and pressing on defense and much more in control of match in the 2nd half.

We had available and used 5 field subs, so we gained a body.

DoubleDipper wrote:
Last year's team, with essentially the same players, was 5-13 for the season.  So far, this year's squad is 5-4, even with a very short roster due to injuries.

This is the most exciting part for me!

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:The simulation also says the Pilots should have lost to Oregon State.  Instead, they got a 3-0 win.  As of right now they are five wins ahead of where the simulation says they would be based on past trends.  And, looking at the box score, this was a game the ladies completely dominated.  Way to go team and coaching staff!

Trends are dangerous. Given the Pilots' trajectory, a trend would say that they should have negative wins soon. Like the wonderful Economist article a few years back noting that simple trend extrapolation would predict that by the year 2100 everyone in Chicago would be murdered every year...

In this case, a turning point seems to have occurred, and is most welcome!

SoreKnees wrote:

UPSoccerFanatic wrote:The simulation also says the Pilots should have lost to Oregon State.  Instead, they got a 3-0 win.  As of right now they are five wins ahead of where the simulation says they would be based on past trends.  And, looking at the box score, this was a game the ladies completely dominated.  Way to go team and coaching staff!

Trends are dangerous. Given the Pilots' trajectory, a trend would say that they should have negative wins soon. Like the wonderful Economist article a few years back noting that simple trend extrapolation would predict that by the year 2100 everyone in Chicago would be murdered every year...

In this case, a turning point seems to have occurred, and is most welcome!

Which is the whole point of my reports. (Although the trend would not have put them with negative wins. )

According to this season’s RPI ranking as of 9/16 (the 1st RPI ranking for 2018 of which I am aware), the Pilots are performing per their ranking.  With a record of 5-4-0, their five victories have been over teams that are ranked below them, and their four losses have been to teams that are ranked above them.

The Pilot’s RPI ranking is considerably higher than their final RPI rank for 2017.  There are a lot of matches left to play, including the entire conference schedule.  If things went strictly according to the current RPI rankings, the Pilots would go 5-6 for the rest of the season, with a final record of 10-10.  That would disappoint me.  I like the changes and improvements I have seen on the field so far this year.  I anticipate further improvement, both within the team and relative to other teams.  Having more healthy bodies would not hurt.

UPWomenSoccerRookie wrote:According to this season’s RPI ranking as of 9/16 (the 1st RPI ranking for 2018 of which I am aware), the Pilots are performing per their ranking.  With a record of 5-4-0, their five victories have been over teams that are ranked below them, and their four losses have been to teams that are ranked above them.

The Pilot’s RPI ranking is considerably higher than their final RPI rank for 2017.  There are a lot of matches left to play, including the entire conference schedule.  If things went strictly according to the current RPI rankings, the Pilots would go 5-6 for the rest of the season, with a final record of 10-10.  That would disappoint me.  I like the changes and improvements I have seen on the field so far this year.  I anticipate further improvement, both within the team and relative to other teams.  Having more healthy bodies would not hurt.

Right, the Pilots are performing in accord with their actual current RPI ranking, since that ranking, by definition, is an indication of how they're currently performing.  And also right, their current RPI ranking is considerable higher than their final RPI rank for 2017.

What that information doesn't show is the direction in which the Pilots' RPI ranking has been heading, for a long time including last season.  Their ranking was heading lower, not higher.   Based on where they were heading as of the end of last year, and where their opponents were heading, they should have 0 wins this year.  It's stunning how quickly they've turned around.  Credit to the players, who are showing their talent, and their coaches, who are allowing that talent to flourish.

I track this for all D1 women's teams, and compared to trends, the Pilots currently have the greatest positive turn around of any team with a new coach.  And, in fact, their turn around is as great as any team in D1 period, regardless of how long the coach has been there.

UPSF, thanks for all your work and for reporting it to us. It is very interesting, especially since the team is on the upswing.

I too love UPSF's contributions immensely!

The first official RPI is out. We come in at 138: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-women/d1/ncaa-womens-soccer-rpi

SouthCarolinaPilot wrote:The first official RPI is out. We come in at 138: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-women/d1/ncaa-womens-soccer-rpi

Right. Unfortunately, the NCAA's system is having some problems and isn't incorporating all the game results into the RPI computation. They're working on it and hopefully will fix it soon.

In the meantime, however, the Pilots' correct rank, based on all games through Sunday, September 16, is #118 rather than #138.

The Pilots just won against North Dakota 1-0.  It looks like UND pressed hard at the end, but couldn't manage to score.

From my "how are they doing as compared to past trends" perspective, this is a game my simulation says they would win, so the win is good and leaves them with a good number of results better than "expected" and no results poorer.

Interestingly, UND's record so far against D1 opponents (other than the Pilots) is 5-0-1. Because of the way the RPI is constructed, the Pilots win coupled with UND's contribution to the Pilots' strength of schedule should give the Pilots' RPI an inordinate boost when the RPI next comes out.

Back to Merlo for Seattle on Sunday.